On the issue of the significant increase in unemployment, as a consequence of the lockdown imposed due to the pandemic of corona, SEV insists, emphasizing that priority should be given to supporting workers and businesses.
Unemployment is expected to reach close to 20% of the labour force in 2020 from 17.2% in 2019, SEV notes, estimating that 580,000 people will be victims of the new unemployment in the five months of summer.
The state’s bet at the moment, SEV emphasizes, “is to support employment in order to reduce unemployment.” That is why it is important to use the € 1.4 billion of the SURE program, which amounts to approximately € 483 per person for 5 months. ”
The socially optimal, he adds, “will be this money not to become unemployment benefits, but labour benefits.”
580,000 people are victims of the new unemployment
Unemployment, however, is expected to be close to 20% of the labour force in 2020 from 17.2% in 2019, with average employment falling by 3.7%, according to European Commission forecasts. SEV points out in its analysis.
This means, he explains, a 155 thousand-person job reduction at the beginning-end of 2020, with wage cuts falling by 101 thousand and self-employed people, who make up 35% of their time, by 54 thousand.
This bulletin estimates that of the 101,000 people employed in the private sector in the economy, about 13,000 will be reduced in tourism and 88,000 in other sectors, taking into account the size of each. industry before the current crisis.
The economy, however, is experiencing seasonal fluctuations, especially in tourism, with much higher employment in the months of March to July, which gradually de-escalates in the autumn months.
In this bulletin, an attempt is also made to measure the inflation of unemployment expected in the peak months, using the model of the monthly development of net recruitment from previous years of the ERGANI system, for tourism and other sectors (except accommodation and catering).
Thus, the magnitude of the problem facing the country in tackling unemployment in 2020 is highlighted.
According to the analysis, in the period March – July 2020, net employment in tourism will be reduced compared to the corresponding period of 2019 by 224 thousand people, and in other sectors by 141 thousand people, ie in total About 365 thousand people.
If the corresponding self-employed people are added to them, the total number of our fellow citizens affected by the new unemployment will reach about 580 thousand people for 5 months.
“Work benefits” via SURE
“The state’s bet at this time is to support employment in order to reduce unemployment,” SEV said.
“And that’s why it’s important to use the € 1.4 billion of the SURE program, which is about € 483 per person for 5 months.”
“It would be socially optimal for this money not to become unemployment benefits, but labour benefits, so that companies with reduced turnover can operate by offering and maintaining as many jobs as possible, even if only temporarily, reduced hours.”
Social partners before their responsibilities
The Association emphasizes that “the crisis of COVID-19 has again brought Greek society faced with the impasse of over-taxed wage labour, which is also burdened with high non-wage labour costs, a stalemate that intensifies in view of the deep recession and crisis.”
The work support programs, SEV emphasizes, “should be designed to minimize the dilemmas of moral hazard. There must always be an incentive for employees to seek employment and a disincentive for employers to be guided by alternatives to the selection of redundancies, or to circumvent the state benefits system. ”
“That’s why COVID-19 and the SURE program bring all social partners before their responsibilities to show responsibility to society, realism to support productive tissue, businesses and workers, and no more ineffective controversy.”
Qualifying for the next day
“How the recession will be dealt with this year is a prelude to the next day, so that we can return to a dynamic economy without distortions, leaving behind an economy and a development model that cannot escape sick growth,” SEV said.